摘要
本文利用两种经验方法对美国经济中易波动的各市场部门的气候响应功能展开论述。根据可控的实验结果,本实验方法构建了一个基于过程的影响模型。根据模型对多种气候变化情况的响应可以计算出简化形式的方程式。利用剖面法依据这个领域的经验证据直接估计出响应功能。两种方法均表明,农业、林业和能源与温度之间具有丘形的关系。降雨、海平面上升和CO_2也很重要。
This paper develops climate-response functions for sensitive market sectors in the United States' economy using two empirical methods. The experimental approach constructs a process-based impact model from the results of controlled experiments. Reduced-form equations can be estimated from the model responses to multiple climate scenarios. The cross-sectional approach estimates response functions directly from empirical evidence in the field. Both methods indicate that agriculture, forestry, and energy have a hill-shaped relationship to temperature. Precipitation, sea-level rise, and carbon dioxide are also important.
