页岩气使全球石化产业中心重新向美国偏移

Shale Gas Shifts the World′s Petrochemical Industry Center to US Again

页岩气开采技术的突破,使美国天然气产量自2007年起大幅增加,并在2009年超过俄罗斯排名世界第一,天然气进口依赖度大幅减少。页岩气不仅改变了美国的能源格局,也使世界天然气市场格局悄然发生改变。加拿大转而在欧洲寻找买家,俄罗斯和中东等天然气主要出口国将面临挑战,但给欧洲和中国等主要天然气进口国却带来利好。常规天然气资源匮乏的国家,对页岩气勘探开发兴趣浓厚,纷纷制定激励措施,页岩气开采已成世界性趋势。石化巨头在美国掀起页岩气并购战,并在美国兴起了建设乙烷裂解装置的热潮。2015年前后,美国将成为中东之后乙烯衍生物成本第二低的国家。拥有成本和技术优势的美国乙烯衍生物将给世界石化产业带来更大冲击。国内石化企业用石脑油作裂解装置原料,副产大量丙烯,可考虑重点发展丙烯系列产品;充分利用裂解装置副产物,生产精细化工产品,还可以利用廉价的甲醇生产烯烃。我国具有巨大的页岩气储藏量,假如在短短数年内页岩气的产量能大幅增长,届时从天然气中就可分离出数量可观的乙烷,我国也将掀起裂解装置裂解原料轻质化的浪潮。因此,国内石化企业应密切关注中国页岩气的开发进程,提早为裂解装置裂解原料的轻质化作好准备。

As a result of breakthroughs in shale gas extraction technology,the United States＇ natural gas production has grown significantly since 2007 and exceeded that of Russia in 2009,greatly reducing the country＇ s reliance on imported gas and making the country the largest natural gas producer worldwide.Shale gas has not only changed the energy mix of the United States but has also changed the landscape in the world＇s natural gas market.Canada has shifted its sight to Europe for gas buyers and Russia and major gas exporters in the Middle East are facing challenges,but this is good news for major gas importers such as Europe and China.Countries poor in conventional natural gas resources have shown strong interest in shale gas exploration and development and offered a series of incentives to encourage development.Shale gas production is now at- tracting worldwide attention.A host of petrochemical giants have joined in the battle for acquiring shale gas assets in the United States and established a large number of ethane cracking units in that country.By around 2015,the United States will enjoy the second lowest ethylene derivative cost worldwide,only after the Middle East.The US ethylene derivatives with cost and technology advantages will have a dramatic impact on the world＇s petrochemical industry.Chinese petrochemical enterprises use naphtha as feedstock for cracking u- nits and therefore produce a large amount of propylene as a byproduct.They can consider developing propy- lene-derived products,making full use of the byproduct from cracking units to produce fine chemicals and low-price methanol to produce olefin,China has significant shale gas reserves.Assuming that China＇s shale gas production could rise sharply in a short period ,say several years ,China would be able to extract a con- siderable amount of ethane from natural gas and by that time a large-scale switch of cracking units to light feedstocks will take place in China as well.Therefore,domestic petrochemical enterprises should closely watch the progress in domestic shale gas development and prepare themselves for the switch to light cracking feed- stock.