公共交通方式转移价格的排序选择模型

Prices Threshold of Transfer Within Public Transit Mode Based on Ordered Choices Model

通过意愿调查法对公共交通出行者的出行意向进行调查,研究了不同出行时间比下常规公共交通出行者转向轨道交通的意愿价格阈值影响因素及规律.基于排序选择模型,分别建立了基于排序Probit和排序Logit的公共交通内部方式转移价格阈值模型,并对模型进行局部效应分析.结果表明:性别、职业、收入、公交出行时间、公交出行费用及地铁与公交出行时间比对公共交通内部方式转移意愿价格阈值具有显著影响;常规公交费用支出每增加1元,其向轨道交通转移时的票价阈值为3、4、5、6元的概率分别改变-5.03%、1.07%、2.32%、1.00%.

A survey of public transit travelers＇ w ess to pay was carried out in Beijing through Contingent Valuation Method and trip characteristics of public transit travelers were discussed and transfer price threshold was concluded under different time ratio between rail transit and bus. Based on Ordered choices models, transfer price threshold model within public transit were given respectively based on the Ordered Probit and the Ordered Logit Model. Finally partial effects of variables were analyzed . The results showed that gender, occupation, income, bus travel costs, and travel time ratio between rail transit and bus had a significant effect on the price threshold of the mode transfer choice, and the proportion of the price threshold of mode transfer which is 3, 4, 5, 6 Yuan, will change -5.03% , 1.07% , 2.32% , 1.00% respectively when the ticket expenditure of bus increases one Yuan more.