系统科学视域中的突发公共事件及对策分析

Public Emergency and Countermeasure Analysis in the Vision of Systems Science

突发公共事件的突发性、动态性、复杂性和不可预测性迫切需要用系统科学的方法对其进行研究。文章采用系统科学的视角,把突发公共事件看作一个复杂性系统,从事件的产生过程分析事件的成因、特点,根据事件的成因过程提出政府要担当主导事件的序参量,把握事件发展趋向。为此,政府要注意事件和时间流逝的内在关系,降低事件发展的不确定性;打破主客二元关系,获得有效消息;重视信息反馈,输出合目的性信息,此外,政府还要重视细节,避免因细小因素对社会系统进化过程中造成的重大扰动。

Due to the sudden,dynamic,complex and unpredictable features of the public emergency,it is pressing to apply systems science approaches to tackle it.From the perspective of systems science,a public emergency can be regarded as a complex system.That is,we can analyze the causes and features of the emergencies from its development process.By analyzing the causing process,we propose that the government should take the responsibility as the order parameter of the dominant event and assure the trend of the event development.Therefore,the government should watch out the interconnection between the event and the time elapse to reduce the uncertainty of the event development;break the subject-object dualism to obtain the effective information;value the information feedback and send out the intended information.In addition,the government should also put emphasis on details avoiding the significant disturbance to the evolution process of societal system caused by subtle factors.