基于托达罗模型修正的农村非农就业影响因素研究

Study on the Impact Factors of Non-Farm Employment Based on the Todaro Model Amendment

因为农村非农就业的快速发展已使其影响因素分析成为必要,故在修正托达罗人口流动模型的基础上,探讨影响农村非农就业的因素。研究认为:由收入差距和农民工就业率决定的城乡预期收入差距是影响农村非农就业规模的主要因素,而劳动力市场均衡分析表明各种因素共同影响最终形成了三部门条件下新的城乡收入差距。为了验证以上结论而设计的统计检验表明:务工工资、务农收入差距和农民工就业率是影响非农就业的最重要的因素,而农民工人力资本储量、人均家庭负担以及城市现代部门工资与务工收入差距的影响也较显著。因此,政策制定者必须通过发展农业生产和构建人口流动管理长效机制,以规范农村非农就业。

Rapid development of rural no-farm employment makes it necessary to analyze its influence factors.After amending The Todaro Model,this paper discusses the influence Factors of rural no-farm employment.It shows that the rural-urban expect income gap,which is decided by income gap and rural migrant workers＇ employment rate,is the main factor affecting the scale of no-farm employment.While,Labor market equilibrium analysis indicates that various factors which products effect jointly brings new rural-urban income gap between three departments at last.Statistics test,which is designed to find verifications for the conclusion,shows that the gap between rural migrant workers＇ wage and agriculture income,rural migrant workers＇ employment rate is the most important factors of affecting the scale of no-farm employment,and that the effect of rural migrant workers＇ human capital reserves,per capita household burdens,the gap between urban modern department wage and agriculture income is also more remarkable.Thus,policy maker must regulate rural no-farm employment by developing agricultural production and building a long-term mechanism of population flow management.