旱灾对粮食产量的影响——基于1978—2009年山西省数据的实证分析

Influences of Drought on Grain Production in Shanxi Province——Based on the Data Demonstration of Shanxi Province from 1978 to 2009

论文在总结山西省旱灾特点及规律的基础上,重点分析了旱灾与粮食产量的相关关系,并结合其他影响产量因素建立山西省粮食生产函数。研究结果表明,旱灾对山西省粮食产量的负面影响较为显著,阻碍山西粮食产量的因素中农田水利是面临的大问题,因此要确保山西省粮食生产安全,需在粮食生产过程中加大生产要素投入,重点完善农田水利设施建设,提高抵御灾害能力。

This paper summarizes the characteristics and rules of drought happened in Shanxi Province and on this basis,it analyses the correlation between drought and grain production.Combined with other factors affecting the grain production,a grain production function have been established,and then empirical analysis.The results show that the negative impact of drought is significant.The irrigation and water conservancy is a big problem of the hindering factors of grain production.To ensure the safety of Shanxi grain production,it is needed to increase the input of the production factors and enhance the construction of irrigation and water conservancy facilities.Thus,the ability of disaster resistance will be improved.