基于威布尔分布的风速概率分布参数估计方法

The estimation algorithm on the probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed based on Weibull distribution

准确地描述风速特性,直接影响风电场风能资源评估的结果。文章介绍了基于威布尔分布的平均风速及最大风速估计法、矩估计法、最小二乘估计法和极大似然估计法等4种风速概率分布参数估计的方法。通过对乌兰察布地区测风塔实际数据的分析,比较了4种方法的参数估计结果,得到以下结论:在风能资源较丰富地区,平均风速及最大风速估计法的风速拟合效果波动较大,对平均风能密度估计误差较大;矩估计法、最小二乘估计法和极大似然估计法拟合效果良好。

The result of wind resource assessment is influenced by the description of wind distribution. The average wind speed based on Weibull distribution and four kinds algorithm methods of maximum wind speed estimation, moment estimation, least square estimation and maximum likelihood estimation were introduced in this paper. According to the analysis of actual datas in Wu Lanchabu,and the comparison of four methods was made. Come to the conclusion that： the average wind speed and maximum wind speed estimation has a poor fitting result in wind energy resource-rich regions, and the results of least square estimation, moment estimation and maximum likelihood estimation are good.