应用物元评判识别模型预测农业害虫种群动态

Forecasting Population Dynamics of Agricultural Pest by Matter Identification Model

论述了物元评判识别模型的建模方法，并探讨了该模型在预测农业害虫种群动态方面的应用．结果表明，其历史拟合率高达 ９２．３１％，将 １９９５年作为独立样本进行试报，其预报结果与实际发生一致．并指出物元评判模型是预测农业害虫种群动态的一种优良模型．

In this paper, we analyse the modeling method of matter identification model, and discuss its application in forecasting population of Agricultural pest. The results tested the pest data showed that the fitting rate has come up to 92.31%, and accuracy of forecasting for 1995 is satisfactory, and matter identification model is a good model for application.