基于四类空间权重的河南省县域农民人均收入时空演变研究

Spatio-temporal Evolution Analysis Based on Four Categories of Spatial Weights for Per Capita Income of Rural Residents on County Scale in Henan Province

以县级区域为研究单元,通过构建4类8组25种空间权重,利用1999—2008年时间序列数据,对河南省农民人均收入的时空演变过程及成因进行分析,结果表明:(1)基于行政边界邻接的空间权重与经济准则并不相符;(2)当使用较小的阈值时,3类基于距离的空间权重量测的空间集聚程度差异较小,随着阈值的增大,差异变大,但时空演变变得更加一致;(3)收入相似的县域空间分异明显,呈现北高南低、中部高东部低的宏观特征。空间集聚始终非常显著且基本呈上升趋势,2003年以前波动频繁,2004年以来呈逐渐增强趋势;(4)以焦作、郑州和许昌为中心的区域稳定地成为全省农村经济发展势能最高的地区,2003年以来,豫东中部成为农村经济塌陷核心区;(5)地理区位条件差异、区域发展政策和农业生产条件差异是形成时空演变特征的主要因素。

Twenty-five spatial weight matrices with four categories and eight groups are created and statistical data from 1999 to 2008 are used to analyze the process and causes of spatio-temporal evolution of per capita income of rural residents on county scale in Henan. The conclusions are drawn from the analysis ： 1 ） Spatial weight matrix based on administrative adjacency does not abide by economic rules; 2） When smaller threshold value are used, spatial cluster measured based on three categories of distance spatial weights have smaller differences. As threshold i value becomes greater, so do the differences, however, spatio-temporal evolution based on three categories of dis- tance spatial weights are very similarly inclined; 3 ） Counties with similar value represent spatial differential obvi- ously all the time, and macroscopical spatial differentiation characteristics exhibit that it is higher in north and mid- dle Henan while lower in south and east Henan. Spatial cluster of counties with similar value is always significant, and the global spatial autocorrelation level increases slightly by and large, and global Moran＇ s 1 fluctuated frequently before 2003 and has increased gradually since 2004; 4 ） Core Zone of higher rural income is stably distributed spatially which eentres on Jiaozuo, Zhengzhou and Xuchang and the middle of east Henan has become core zone of lower rural income since 2003; 5 ） Differences in geographic location and in agricultural production conditions and non-balanced regional development policy are the main reasons for engendering the characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution.