幼儿概率推理水平及源自教育的可能影响研究

The Review of Preschooler's Probabilistic Reasoning and the Possible Impact from Education

研究者在对幼儿概率推理能力探讨的过程中,曾经深受Piaget的"幼儿不具备概率推理能力"这一传统观点的影响,但后续的研究逐渐发现幼儿是具备一定概率推理能力的。随着研究的进展,最近的研究又发现,幼儿在概率推理方面不仅能够考虑到基础概率,还具备根据事后概率对先前概率判断进行修正的能力。

Researchers are affected by Piaget＇s idea which argues that the preschoolers are lack of probabilistic reasoning ability while doing researches on preschooler＇s probabilistic reasoning.However,researchers find preschoolers do have the probabilistic reasoning abilities.With the further development of the research,the current research indicates that the preschoolers can not only take underlying probability into consideration in terms of probabilistic reasoning but also have the ability to correct the previous probability judgment according to the successive posterior probability.