我国水电企业海外投资政治风险保险的收益模型

Outcome model of political risk insurance for overseas investment of China's hydropower companies

依据政治风险事件对水电企业海外投资项目收益影响的大小,构建政治风险保险的收益评估模型,该模型考虑到政治风险发生的随机性,加入随机元素,且从当前数据出发,一定程度上减轻了对未来政治事件估计的难度,有助于水电企业进行政治风险的投保决策。最后给出我国水电企业利用保险措施规避政治风险的相关对策。

According to the magnitude the effects of political risk events on the outcome of overseas hydropower investment projects,a model for evaluating the outcome of political risk insurance,which considered the randomness of the occurrence of political risk,was established.The stochastic elements were added,and all the parameters were estimated from the current data.Accordingly,the difficulty for forecasting the future political events was mitigated to a certain extent,and it would be helpful for hydropower companies to make a decision for the insurance of the political risk.Finally,the relevant countermeasures for China's hydropower companies to use insurance measures to avoid political risk were proposed.