比较静态偏离-份额分析法在就业分析中的应用——以湖北省为例

Application of comparative statics shift share method to the employment analysis in Hubei Province

比较静态偏离-份额分析法在静态偏离-份额分析法的基础上拓展出时间维度,可揭示区域经济变量随时间推移的发展过程。应用比较静态偏离-份额模型分析湖北省三大产业就业变化趋势,结果表明,"八五"以来,湖北省第一产业就业减少速度出现慢-快-慢-快的变化;第三产业就业增加速度持续超过全国平均水平,原因主要是全国第三产业就业增长的结构优势带动了湖北省第三产业的就业增加;第二产业就业除"九五"时期有所减少外,其他时期就业年增速均超过全国平均水平,并且竞争优势对第二产业就业增加的贡献越来越大。

Based on the static shift share method,comparative static shift share analysis（CSSSA） considers the time dimension and reveals the process of regional economic variables.This article clarifies the economic meaning of shift share values,expounds the CSSSA model and applies it to the analysis of employment growth in three industries in Hubei Province.The results show that,from the Eighth Five-year Plan period to the present the reduction rate of the primary industry in Hubei has experienced a slow-fast-slow-fast pattern,and employment with the tertiary industry continues to increase,which benefits from the advantages of the tertiary industry in the province.In the Ninth Five-Year Plan period,employment with the second industry has decreased,yet the annual growth rate in Hubei has exceeded that of the whole country,and the competitive advantage contributes more to promoting employment with the second industry.