沙河玻璃产业循环经济综合预警实证研究

An Empirical Research on Comprehensive Early-warning of Glass Industry Circular Economy in Shahe City

以循环经济的相关原理为准则,构建了沙河玻璃产业循环经济预警指标体系,由层次分析法（AHP）并结合熵技术修正得到各指标权重。原始数据无量纲化处理后,采用直线加权综合评价法确定2002-2010年沙河玻璃产业循环经济综合预警指数。利用预警指标历史数据的纵向比较确定警限,同时结合模糊数学的隶属度概念,综合确定警度。分析结果表明,这9年间,沙河玻璃产业循环经济由重警区、中警区向弱警区良性发展。同时,采用回归技术确定了沙河玻璃产业循环经济发展预测模型,预测结果表明,进入2013年可解除警戒状态,沙河玻璃产业将进入良性循环期。

On basis of the relevant principles of circular economy,the early-warning index system of the glass industry circular economy was constructed in this study.Then,the index weights were obtained by the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）,combining with the entropy technical corrections.After the dimensionless treatment for the original data,the linear weighted comprehensive evaluation method was used to determine the comprehensive early-warning indexes for Shahe glass industry circular economy from the year of 2002 to 2010.The early-warning limits were determined by longitudinal comparation of the historial data for early-warning indexes and the early-warning degrees were determined by the fuzzy mathematics concept.The analysis results showed that,in the past nine years,Shahe glass industry circular economy had developed from the high warning and middle warning zone to the weak warning zone.At the same time,by regression technique,the forecasting model for Shahe glass industry circular economy mode was constructed,and the predicted results showed that the alert would be relieved in 2013 and Shahe glass industry would enter a positive cycle.