人民币跨境结算失衡原因分析

The Analysis of RMB Cross Border Settlement Imbalance

本文根据贸易国特性、出口产品差异性、交易成本、货币币值等对结算货币影响的相关国际贸易结算货币理论,从我国进出口产品结构、进出口区域结构、人民币交易成本与人民币升值预期等4个方面对人民币跨境结算失衡的原因进行分析,认为在我国当前进出口产品结构、区域结构情况下,由于境外金融市场人民币存量有限,尚未建立自由的有规模的人民币交易市场,再加上人民币升值的预期,人民币跨境结算失衡是一种必然,同时,人民币跨境结算失衡进一步促进了境外金融市场人民币数量的积累,推动了有规模、交易频繁、交易与避险工具丰富的人民币离岸金融市场的形成和发展,为人民币成为国际货币奠定基础。

Based on the related international trade settlement currency theory,the author analyzes causes for the imbalance of RMB cross border settlement in terms of China＇s import-export product structure and regional structure,the cost of RMB transaction and the expectation of RMB appreciation.It shows that in the light of the current import-export product structure and regional structure,because of the limited RMB reserves in foreign financial market,the not established RMB transaction market and the expectation of RMB appreciation,the imbalance of RMB cross border settlement is inevitable.At the same time,the imbalance of RMB cross border settlement will further promote the accumulation of RMB in foreign financial market,promote the formation and development of RMB off-shore financial market with certain scale,frequent transaction,and abundant tool of transaction and risk transfer;it can also help lay a solid foundation for RMB to become the international currency.