大气环流模式在松花江流域的适用性评价

Assessment on Performance of Different General Circulation Models in Songhuajiang River Basin

不同GCMs的输出变量在区域上的表现差异较大。以11个统计特征量为基础,构建了基于秩评分的评价方法,分别对比分析了21个GCMs的17个输出变量在松花江流域与ERA-40再分析资料的吻合程度,以秩评分进行了定量评价。结果显示:不同GCMs对高空气象变量的模拟表现与地面气候要素的模拟表现并不一致,IPSL:CM4、GISS:ER、HadCM3和CSIRO:MK30在松花江流域高空气象变量模拟方面表现相对较好,而CSIRO:MK30、CGCM3.1_T63、GFDL:CM21和BCCR:BCM20在地面气候要素的模拟方面表现相对较好。综合评分结果显示,IPSL:CM4、CSIRO:MK30、GISS:ER和BCCR:CM20在松花江流域的综合表现相对较好。

There are great differences in the regional outputs from different GCMs. With the combination of 11 statistical characteristics, a score-based muhi-criteria method was developed to assess /he performance of 21 GCMs with 5 climatic variables （air temperature, relative humidity, zonal wind speed, meridian wind speed, geopotential height） at 3 high-altitudes （850hPa, 700hPa, 500hPa） and precipitation, air temperature in the Songhuajiang River Basin. The results show that there is not consistency for GCMs＇ performance between high-altitude variables and ground climatic variables, IPSL：CM4, GISS：ER, HadCM3 and CSIRO： MK30 show relatively better performance for high-altitude meteorological variables, while CSIRO：MK30, CGCM3.1_T63, GFDL：CM21 and BCCR：BCM20 show relatively better performance for ground climatic variables in the Songhuajiang River Basin. Comprehen- sive assessment shows that the GCMs with relatively better performance in the Songhuajiang River Basin are IPSL：CM4, CSIRO： MK30, GISS：ER and BCCR：CM20.