房价下调:“破发”见底

House prices’ down: "break" the bottom line

2011年11月6日，国务院总理温家宝在俄罗斯圣彼得堡表示，中国下调房价是国家坚定的政策，调节后的房价将使民众能够接受，也使房地产业健康有序发展。

On November 6, 2011, premier Wen Jiabao said at st. Petersburg in Russia, 'China's cutting house prices is national firm policy, adjustting the house prices would make normal people affordable,and also let real estate development become healthy and orderly.' On November 9, 2011, the Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR) released 'the general running situation of overall Chinese real estate market in the third quarter'. It is worth mentioning that it is the first time that MLR disclosure the data of unconstructed land. According to the data, untill October 2011, the national unconstructed real estate land is about 213,000 hectares, including 165,000 hectares housing land; the national uncompleted real estate land is about 455000 hectares, including 355,000 hectares housing land. Based on normal construction level, these land can provide total 10 billion square meters of housing, equals to 9.5 times of total national housing sales in 2010. And when the supply is far more than demand, the prices may low than its value--that is to say, the price is 'break' its bottom line. Therefore, the national house prices reduction tide is probably coming: In 2011, the fall will mainly happen in the first and second tier citiesm, and in 2012, it will likely spread to third and forth tier cities. Moreover, this round of falling may lasts 2 ~ 3 years, because the situation now is quiet different from before.