奥斯特罗格拉茨基的概率思想探赜

A Research on M V Ostrogradsky's Probability Thought

奥斯特罗格拉茨基是圣彼得堡概率学派的杰出代表,其对相关实际问题的应用研究推动了概率论在俄罗斯的传播和发展。他坚持认为概率论是数学分析最重要的应用分支之一:为天文学提供了大量基本数学观察方法,可确定比数学观察误差影响还要小的随机事件原因等,其社会服务功能刺激了诸如保险业等社会福利机构的产生和发展,进而促进了自然科学的相关理论发展。由于深受拉普拉斯概率思想之影响,奥斯特罗格拉茨基虽然把概率论看作研究随机现象规律的有力工具,但经常犯一些哲学观和方法论错误。

M. V. Ostrogradsky is a prominent representative of the St. Petersburg Probability School. His contribution to probability theory prompted mainly by practical considerations. He thought that the science of probability is one of the most important applications of mathematical analysis ： the philosophy of nature owes a debt to this science, Which provides many methods of determining grounds out of a large number of observations on which the important astronomical theories are based; it served as a stimulus for the development of worthwhile public institutions such as insurance companies; using this science we determine the existence of causes ,whose effect is smaller than the errors encountered in observations. In almost all of Ostrogradsky＇s works on probability theory the influence of Laplace＇s probability thought is strongly felt. Ostrogradsky considered probability theory an important tool for the study of regularities which arise in mass phenomena. However, he often committed errors of a philosophical and methodological nature.