中美制度均势与东亚两种体系的兼容共存

The Structural Balance between the U.S.and China and the Coexistence of Two East Asian Systems

东亚体系的现状是中国倡导的多边合作体系与美国主导的双边同盟体系的并存。如何解释两种体系的兼容共存以及如何实现兼容共存?文章首先引入制度均势理论,分析了冷战结束后中美两国在东亚采取的制度均势行为,认为中美制度均势为东亚两种体系的兼容共存提供了现实依据;同时,鉴于双边同盟和多边合作既存在竞争的一面,又存在共通的一面,其共通的一面为东亚两种体系的兼容共存提供了理论依据。然后,文章又在借鉴国际制度互动理论的基础上,提出了两种体系实现兼容共存的"制度嵌套交叠模式"。该模式既是基于两种体系都无法取代另一方这样一个事实,也是中美两国在东亚采取制度均势政策的结果。最后,文章讨论了中美制度均势和东亚体系兼容对中国外交政策的启示。

The current status quo in East Asia is the coexistence of a system of multilateral cooperation promoted by China and a system of bilateral alliances promoted by the United States.How do we explain and achieve compatibility and coexistence of these two systems？ This article borrows from structural balance theory to analyze the structural balancing in East Asia between the U.S.and China following the Cold War.It argues that this balancing makes it possible for two systems to coexist in East Asia,and that the bilateral alliances and multilateral cooperation both compete with and complement one another.The way in which they complement one another provides theoretical evidence for the coexistence of two systems within East Asia.The article goes on to borrow from the theory of international systems to propose a ＂nested systems mode＂ of realizing the coexistence of two systems.Based on the assumption that two systems can exist when each is not capable of replacing the other,it argues that this is achieved as a result of the policies of structural balancing followed by the U.S.and China.The article closes with a discussion of foreign policy implications for China of its structural balancing with the U.S.and the coexistence of two East Asian systems.