从中东变局透视国际秩序的演变

Evolution of International Order:A View from the Changing Situations in the Middle East

中东动荡不仅是该地区国家政治和社会发展历史进程的一部分,而且还深刻反映了国际秩序的调整与变化。冷战结束以来,国际环境的迅速变化以及世界政治经济权势的快速转移是"诱发"中东变局的重要原因之一。从时机上看,美国中东战略的收缩,为中东变革运动的兴起提供了可能;从发展上看,全球化的深入发展,拉大了中东与世界其他地区的差距;从理念和制度建设上看,改革创新的时代精神对缺乏机制和制度创新动力和能力的中东国家形成了巨大冲击。而正在转变中的国际秩序以及世界权力结构的变化趋势,也必将对未来中东地区秩序重构及各国政治及社会转型产生重要影响。

The instability in the Middle East is not only the part of the historical process of political and social development in countries of the region, but also shows the changing international order. In fact, the fast changing international environment and the rapid transfer of world political and economic power and influence after the Cold War is one of the main reasons for intriguing turbulence in Middle East. In terms of timing, the contraction of U. S. - Middle East strategy enables the rising of evolution movement in the region; in terms of development, the deepening globalization enlarges the gap between the Middle East and the rest of the world; in terms of conception and institutional building, our age＇ s spirit of reform and innovation puts huge impacts on the Middle East countries, which lack motives and capacities for mechanism and institution innovations. While on the other hand, the changing international order and world power structure are bound to exert important influences on future reconstruction of regional order in the Middle East, and on the political and social transformations in the Middle East countries.