中国电力能源效率影响因素研究

Research on Influencing Factors of Electrical Energy Efficiency in China

论文选取我国29个省、市、自治区2000～2009年10年的面板数据,利用面板平滑转换模型深入分析产业结构、能源消费结构、技术进步、对外开放程度及电力价格五大因素对电力能源效率的影响程度及影响机制,结果显示:①第二产业的比重对电力能源效率具有负向影响,但随着产业结构的不断优化升级,电力能源效率反而逐渐提升;②电力消费量占能源消费总量的比重对电力能源效率的提高具有反作用;③技术进步水平、进出口贸易总额占GDP比重均会促进电力能源效率的提高;④电力价格对电力能源效率的影响不明显,若想通过调整电价来大幅提高我国的电力能源效率,效果可能并不显著,但对于寻找替代能源、发展清洁新能源可能会有一定的促进作用。最后,有针对性地为提高我国的电力能源效率提出政策建议。

The paper deeply analyzes that how five factors which are industrial structure, energy consumption structure, technological progress, openness and electricity price affect the electrical energy efficiency using PSTR model by choosing panel data of 10 years from 2000- 2009 for 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of our country, and the results show that., the proportion of the secondary industry has a negative impact on electrical energy efficiency, while the electrical energy efficiency is instead improved gradually with the industrial structure optimizing and upgrading; the proportion of electricity consumption accounting for total energy consumption is counterproductive to improve the electrical energy efficiency; technology progress level and the proportion of total imports and exports to GDP can both promote the improvement of electrical energy efficiency; electricity price has no obvious effect on electrical energy efficiency, so the effect may not be significant if we expect to increase electrical energy efficiency substantially by adjusting the electricity price, but it may have a certain role to looking for alternative energy and developing clean new energy. Finally, we specially come up with some policy recommendations to improve the electrical energy efficiency of China.