农村金融深化对农户消费需求影响的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Influence of Rural Financial Reform Deepening on the Consumption Demand of Rural Households

基于协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数分析,根据中国1979～2009年的时间序列数据,实证分析了农民消费支出与农村金融深化之间的关系,结果表明:农民可支配收入的增加是农民消费支出增加的主要因素,农民可支配收入的变动对农民消费支出的响应是同向的;农村金融规模的扩大也对农民消费增加有显著的影响,但是存在一定的滞后效应;农村金融效率的提高没有显著提升农民的消费水平,对农民消费支出的影响显著弱于农村金融规模对农民消费支出的影响。

Based on co-integration analysis, Granger causality test tion analysis, an empirical analysis is made on the relationship between and impulse response funcrural consumption expenditure and the deepening of rural financial reform by using China＇s time series data from 1979 to 2009. The results show that the increase of disposable income of peasants is the principal factor which leads to their increase of consumption expenditure, so the two variables have the same orientations. The expansion of rural financial scale also has significant influence on the consumption of peasants, but there is certain hysteresis nature. The improvement of rural financial efficiency cannot increase ＇peasants＇ consumption level significantly, and its influence on their consumption expenditure is smaller than that of the rural financial scale.