供应风险管理的柔性组合研究

Research on Flexible Combination in Supply Risk Management

针对供应链中经常发生的供应和需求不匹配的风险问题,分析供应风险中的供应成本风险和供应承诺风险,并将二者组合,探讨柔性组合策略对降低供应风险的影响。重点是从定量角度分析两供应商情况下,各供应商供应产品数量的可调整幅度对供应风险的影响。结果表明,如果要降低供应风险,当高成本供应商提供的产品数量占采购商订购的总产品数量比例很大时,高成本供应商应该允许其所供应的产品数量具有较大的调整幅度(即弹性合同);同样,当低成本供应商供应的产品数量很大时,则也要允许其所供应的产品数量具有较大的调整幅度。即,无论是高成本供应商还是低成本供应商,都应该采用弹性合同,则有利于降低供应链的风险。

In view of the frequently occurring risks resulting from mismatching supplies and demands in a supply chain, the paper mainly analyzes the cost and commitment risks among the various supply risks and combines the two to study the impact of the strategy of flexible combination on the reduction of these risks. Then in an example analysis involving a supply chain with two suppliers, it studies quantitatively the influence of the adjustable extent of the volume of the products of both suppliers upon the supply risks. The result shows that, if the supply risks are to be reduced, the supplier with higher cost should allow a greater adjustable extent to its supply of products （i.e., entering into a flexible contrac0 when its products take a rather large proportion of the order of the purchaser＇s; conversely, the supplier with lower cost should also let its products be flexibly adjustable when it supplies most of the order. That is to say, for suppliers despite their cost levels, flexbile contracts should be adopted to mitigate the risks of the supply chain.