三维自回归趋势面模型在疾病时空动态分析中的应用

Studying the Space time Dynamic of Disease Using Tri dimensional Auto regression Trend Surface Model

目的 探讨三维自回归趋势面模型技术在疾病时空动态分析预测中的应用价值。方法 在空间相关 自相关假设下 ,提出二维自回归趋势面模型 ,通过加入时间变量t,构造三维自回归趋势面模型。结果 获得三维自回归趋势面模型及其建模方法。结论 该模型不仅可分析疾病的空间趋势 ,而且可分析其空间趋势的时间变化特征。

Objective to explore applicability of tri dimensional auto regression trend surface model in studying the space time dynamic of disease.Methods based on the spatial correlation or auto correlation hypotheses,the bi dimensional auto regression trend surface model was put forward, By using the time variable t, tri dimensional auto regression trend surface model was built.Results the tri dimensional auto regression trend surface model and the method to build this model were obtained. Conclusion in studying the spatial distribution and its space time dynamic of disease, not only the spatial distribution dynamic of disease, but also its space time dynamic can be analyzed by fitting tri dimensional auto regression trend surface model.