近10年来甘肃省粮食生产现状及增产途径分析

The Grain Crops Produce Status in Recent Ten Years and its Yield Potent of Gansu Province

明确甘肃省粮食生产能力及其进一步提高的途径,对未来保障区域粮食安全具有重要意义。通过调查近10年来甘肃省耕地面积、粮食播种面积、粮食总产量、粮食单产等数据资料,探讨耕地面积、粮食播种面积、粮食总产量和粮食单产之间的相互关系,以阐明甘肃省粮食生产的潜力及其主要影响因素。结果表明,甘肃省耕地面积和粮食播种面积在近10年间呈先下降后上升的趋势,二者呈显著线性相关(P<0.01);粮食总产量和单产波动上升,但粮食播种面积的变化对粮食总产量无显著影响,单产提高是引起粮食总产量增加的主要因素。分析认为提高单位面积的粮食生产能力是保障甘肃省粮食安全的主要出路,而提高旱地粮食单产则是实现甘肃省新增25亿kg粮食的主要突破口。

It is very important to regional food security to study the potent of grain crops produce,and futher to increase the grain yield in Gansu province,as well as whole country.Based on the analyse of the change of cropland area,grain crop area,total grain product,and grain crop yield from 1999 to 2009,the relationship among cropland area,grain crop area,total grain product and grain crop yield were discussed in this papers,to understand the main factor which affect the increases of grain crop production in Gansu Province.The results showed that the cropland and grain crop area decreased firstly and then increased from 1999 to 2009,there were significantly positive linear correlation（P0.01） .The total grain crop product and grain crop yield increased fluctuantly,but the grain crop area had no significant effect on total grain crop product,the increasing of grain crop yield resulted in the increasing of total grain crop product in recent ten years.It suggested that the main approach to increase total grain crop yield of Gansu Province was to increase the grain crop yield but its planting area.To realize the target to increase 250 millions ton in next 5 years in Gansu Province,mainly depend on the increasing of grain crop yield on rain-fed area.