美国第二轮量化宽松政策实效分析

Analysis on the Effectiveness of American Second Round of Quantitative Easing Policy

本文对美国第二轮量化宽松政策实效进行分析,认为总体上该政策取得了一定的成效,表现在一些部门投资扩大,耐用消费品支出增加,股市出现价格指数上升趋势。但是,房地产市场复苏缓慢,建筑投资依然低迷;工薪收入增额下降和较高失业率的存在,以及对未来经济前景的信心不足,使得个人消费支出难以迅速扩大。此外,该政策推动了国家债务规模进一步扩大,政府信用等级下降,投资者风险增大,这些因素反过来进一步使得投资者信心不足,就业岗位创造艰难,GDP增长疲软。该政策虽使金融市场流动性增加,但"促进投资、刺激消费"的两大目标并未充分实现。

The paper analyzes the effectiveness of U.S.QE2 and considers that in general the policy has obtained some achievements such as investment expansion in some sectors,the increase in the expenditure on durable consumer goods,and the upward trend of price index in stock market.However,the recovery in real estate market is slow and construction investment is still in the doldrums;the deduction in the increment in salary,high unemployment rate and a lack of confidence in future economic prospects make the rapid increase in personal consumption expenditure difficult.In addition,QE2 promotes the further expansion of national debt scale,the decline in government credit rating and the increase in investor risk;these factors in turn further lead to a lack of investor confidence,the difficulty in job creation and weak GDP growth.In other words,QE2 results in the increase in the liquidity of financial market,but the two objectives of promoting investment and stimulating consumption have not been fully attained.