转型时期经济波动对我国生产率增长的影响研究

The Effect of Business Cycle on Chinese Productivity Growth during Economic Transition

中国经济自改革开放以来一直保持高速增长,但同时也经历了因内部改革及外部环境变化导致的频繁经济波动。本文基于1985年至2009年期间省级面板数据,实证考察了经济波动对我国生产率增长的影响,其中特别采用了DEA方法对生产率增长进行了分解。结果表明,总体上,经济波动对效率改进的影响并不显著,但分段样本考察结果看,1997年以后时间段的效率改进呈逆周期性;无论是对于整体样本,还是分段样本,技术进步均呈逆周期性,经济向下波动反而对技术进步起到促进作用。以上结论的直接含义就是,尽管经济向下波动有其负面影响,但更应看到它可能对长期增长产生的积极作用。面对经济危机,最需要的是理性与客观,最关键的是信心。

While keeping a high-speed growth since adoption of opening-door and reform policy, China has also encountered several business cycles caused by internal reform as well as external factors. From the perspective of long-run growth, this article makes an empirical study on the effect of business cycle on China＇s productivity growth with provincial panel data ranging from 1985 to 2009. The findings show that the business cycle has no impact on economic＇, efficiency in the whole sample period, yet negatively affected economic efficiency in the post-1997 sub-period, i. e. , economic recession helps improve economic efficiency; technical change is a-cyclical, i. e. , technology level is likely to be improved during recession. Some policy implications based on these findings have been made.