基于随机响应面法的电力系统仿真不确定性分析

Uncertainty Analysis Based on Stochastic Response Surface Method in Power System Simulation

随机响应面法可克服传统方法仿真次数多、时间长的缺陷,仅需少量次数仿真便可快速估计出响应的不确定度。但由于电力系统的复杂性和强非线性,随机响应面法用于电力系统仿真仍有若干问题值得深入探讨。为使随机响应面法得到更广泛的应用,文中以蒙特卡洛模拟作为参照,详细探讨了配置点选取、参数服从经验概率分布或参数具有相关性时的不确定度等问题。此外,结合轨迹灵敏度法提出了多参数不确定性分析的策略,可大大减少用于不确定性分析的输入参数个数。算例分析表明了随机响应面法的有效性和适用性。

Despite the advantage of stochastic response surface method （SRSM） in overcoming the drawback of repeated simulation required by the conventional method by quickly estimating response uncertainty with only small amounts of simulation, it is worth further investigation for application in power system simulation because of the system＇s complexity and characteristics of multi-dimensionality and strong nonlinearity. In order to enable the SRSM to find even wider application, by referring to the Monte Carlo simulation, an in depth analysis is made of such problems as the selection of collocation points, parameter distribution in obeisance to empirical probability or the uncertainty when random inputs are correlated. In addition, by consulting the trajectory sensitivity method, a parameter uncertainty analyzing strategy capable of dramatic reduction in the number of uncertain inputs is proposed. The efficiency and validity of the SRSM are shown by case study results.