价格贸易条件变动、进口关税削减与中国加入WTO的生产率效应

Changes in Terms of Trade,Import Tariff Reductions and Productivity Effects of China's WTO Accession

本文使用中国加入WTO之后的2002～2009年数据,构建面板数据模型来检验了价格贸易条件变动动和进口关税削减对产出和全员劳动生产率的影响。我们的检验结果表明,价格贸易条件的改善显著地促进了我国生产率的增长,价格贸易条件对生产率的影响体现为一种结构效应和资源配置效应的综合。在结构效应和资源配置效应总体为正的情形下,价格贸易条件的波动才能体现出正的生产率效应。进口关税水平的削减对我国生产率的影响为负,因为削减进口关税税率所推动的进口贸易的增长,在很大程度上带来的负的竞争效应要大于其所带来的技术溢出效应。本文的研究对于我国进一步改革开放战略,尤其是对我国进行区域间的经贸合作或者建立自由贸易区都有着一定的启示。

This paper uses the data from 2002 to 2009 after China′s WTO accession to build a panel data model to test the effects of changes in terms of trade and import tariff reductions on output and labor productivity.Our test results show that the price terms of trade improvement has contributed significantly to productivity growth,the effects of price terms of trade on productivity is manifested in a structure and resource allocation effects′ synthesis.In the case the overall structural effects and the resources allocation effects proves positive,the changes in price terms of trade can lead to the positive productivity effects.Reduction of import tariffs has negative effects on China′s productivity,because the growth of imports promoted by the reduction of import tariffs brings about negative effects of competition,which is larger than technology spillovers.The research has a certain amount of inspiration for China′s further reform and opening up strategy,especially for China′s regional economic and trade cooperation,or the establishment of a free trade area.