保增长与控通胀表现发凡及相应学术论争

Relations of Economic Growth and Inflation,Academic Debate

基于国际经验,把经济增长与通货膨胀的关系概括为五种类型。对我国1978～2011年经济增长和通货膨胀之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明,经济增长可能导致产生通货膨胀的压力、通货膨胀与经济增长没有稳定的"促进"或"促退"关系,以及经济增长与通货膨胀不存在必然的因果关系。应对通货膨胀压力,应从实行稳定货币量的货币政策,稳定社会通胀预期,强化农业的基础地位,保护好中、低收入阶层,控制和消除资产泡沫等方面着手。

On international experiences, the relationship between economic growth and inflation could be divided into five types.By investigating into the relation between them from 1978 to 2011, we could find that economic growth could bring inflationary pressures, but it could not accelerate or slow down inflation,and they have no inevitable causal relationship. Faced with current inflationary pressures,we should start from implementing monetary policy of stabilizing currency and social inflationary expectation, consolidate the basis position of agriculture, protect low and middle imcome classes, control and eliminate assets bubbles.