基于联立方程的中美贸易差额与经济增长联动性研究

Research on Interaction Effect between Sino-US Trade Balance and Economic Growth

中美两国之间的经济增长相互影响,而贸易是重要传导途径之一。本文选取了1989—2010年间的一系列中美贸易指标和经济指标进行研究,分析了在联立方程的系统性视角下贸易差额与经济增长之间的联动关系,上述方法突破了格兰杰因果关系检验的局限性。方程的估计结果表明,中美贸易差额与美国经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系,而中美贸易差额与中国经济增长之间存在互为因果的非对称的联动性效应。系统中的这种关系进一步形成了贸易余额与经济增长的增速差异,并使两国对待贸易差额的态度发生变化。

The economic important pathways, the growth between U.S. and China has a mutual influence and trade is one of the article selects trade indexs and economic indexs from 1989 to 2010 to analyze the interaction effect between trade balance and economic growth on the systemic perspective of simultaneous equations, which breaks through the limitation of Granger Causality Test. Equation estimates show that there is an unidirectional causal relationship between sino - U. S. trade balance and U. S. ＇ economic growth, meanwhile there is an asymmetric causal interaction effect between trade balance and China＇ s economic growth. This connection in the system leads to the difference of growth rates of trade balance and economic growth, which changes the two countries＇ attitude toward trade balance.