政府干预、投资扩张与通货膨胀

Government Intervention、Investment Expansion and Inflation

本文认为通货膨胀"老虎"之所以在我国频繁出笼,是与政府干预下的投资扩张行为有重要关系。以政府干预为切入点,文章首先指出投资扩张是推动改革开放以来我国通货膨胀周期性频发的重要因素,然后论述了投资扩张对通货膨胀形成的三个传递渠道,即成本传导渠道、出口传导渠道、融资传导渠道,最后通过构建VAR模型对三个传导渠道进行了实证分析。实证分析结果表明,投资扩张主要通过成本传导渠道、出口传导渠道推动了物价的上涨,而融资传导渠道受阻。

This article thinks that inflation ＂tiger＂ frequently appears in China,which is due to investment expansion behavior under the government intervention.We begin with government intervention,firstly indicate the investment expansion since reform and opening up is the main cause of inflation frequent occurring,then propose three transmission channels which investment expansion affects inflation： cost transmission channel,export transmission channel,financing transmission channel,and finally empirically analyze three transmission channels by constructing VAR model.The results of the study show that,investment expansion pushes the price increasing through export transmission channel and cost transmission channel,and the financing transmission channel is obstructed.