中国各产业的就业拉动能力分析——基于完全就业新视角的投入产出分析

Analysis of Industry's Ability to Drive the Employment of China——The Input-output Analysis Based on a New Perspective of Full Employment

利用2002年的42*42投入产出表,计算出各个产业单位产值所需的完全劳动与资本消耗,并使用修正的要素投入指标(单位产值所需劳动、劳动资本比),对各产业的就业拉动能力进行排序。和未考虑完全劳动消耗的产业排序相对比,考虑完全劳动消耗的产业排序并未形成统计意义上的背离。但是,考虑完全劳动消耗后,一些产业的就业吸纳能力在排序上发生了非常显著的变化。因此,从产业的完全就业拉动角度来考虑产业政策,更有助于解决就业问题。

Using 42 ＊ 42 input-output table（2002）,this paper calculates the total labor and capital consumption of different industries.According to the modified index of input factors（labor/ output ratio,labor /capital ratio）,the authors rank the industries through their employment absorption ability.It is found that,although the total employment consumption will not statistically overrun the result gained through traditional way（only consider the direct labor employment or direct labor/capital ratio）,a number of industries change the rank significantly when taking total employment into consideration.So,it is expected to solve more effectively the unemployment problem if we establish the industrial policy from the total employment perspective.