广东经济增长与产业结构升级的动态机理研究

On the Dynamic Mechanism of Guangdong's Economic Growth and Industrial Structure Upgrading

文章实证检验广东经济增长与产业结构关系:在宏观机理方面经济增长、第二产业和第三产发展增速较快;第二产业和第三产业对经济增长的贡献率和拉动作用最大,但波动性比较强。在微观机理方面第一产业、第二产业和经济增长之间存在稳定的协整关系,第三产业与经济增长没有稳定的协整关系;第二产业是第一产业的格兰杰因果关系,第二产业与经济增长是相互的格兰杰因果关系,第一产业与经济增长是相互的格兰杰因果关系。在实施产业政策时需要设计有效的产业治理制度加以区别对待。

This paper empirically tests the relationship between Guangdong＇s structure. In macro-mechanism relations： the development of economic growth economic growth and the industrial , the secondary industry and the tertiary industry is rapid; the secondary and the tertiary industries contribute most to economic growth, but have rela- tively strong volatility. In the micro-mechanism relations ： there is a stable co-integration relationship among the pri- mary, secondary industries and economic growth, and vice versa between the tertiary industry and economic growth; the secondary industry is the Granger causality of the primary industry, the second industry and economic growth are mutual Granger causality, and the same is true for the first industrial and economic growth. In the implementation of industrial policy, the three industries should be handled differently with effective industrial govern- ance system.