扩大内需政策对城乡经济协调发展的作用——基于城乡投入产出模型

The Effect of Domestic Demand Promoting Policy on the Coordinated Development of Urban and Rural Areas in China

本文基于自行编制的中国城乡投入产出表,利用生产诱发系数、诱发依赖系数和需求影响报酬模型,定量分析了扩大内需政策对城乡经济协调发展的作用。具体测算了"4万亿元投资"和"家电下乡"补贴政策对社会经济和城乡协调发展的影响以及缓解外需下滑的效果。计算结果显示:"4万亿元投资"和"家电下乡"等扩大内需政策可诱发全社会总产值增加额101251亿元,相当于2008年社会总产值的11.8%;"4万亿元投资"对城镇工业的诱发额相当于2008年工业总产值的14%。"家电下乡"对家电制造及相关行业的诱发额相当于2008年家电制造业产值的41%。"4万亿元投资"和2009年的"家电下乡"补贴对社会总产值诱发额比2009年上半年出口减少导致社会总产值的损失高76847亿元;"4万亿元投资"和"家电下乡"两项措施合计使城镇和农村居民人均收入分别增加1879元和786元,相当于2008年城镇居民人均收入的11.8%和农村居民人均收入的16.8%。但是,"4万亿元投资"和"家电下乡"对城镇劳动者报酬的诱发效果大于对农村劳动者报酬的诱发效果,对促进城乡居民收入均衡发展,来体现显著的促进作用。

This paper develops a China urban-rural input-output model and applies the diffusion coefficient, dependent coefficient and the model of demand affecting reward to evaluate the effect of domestic demand promoting policies on the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, especially the effect of the ＂RMB4 trillion investment＂ policy and the ＂household appliances to the countryside＂ policy on the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, as well as on the release from the declining external demands. The results show that the polices of ＂RMB4 trillion investment＂ and ＂household appliances to the countryside＂ can lead the whole output to increase by RMB10.13 trillion, representing 11.8% of the total social output in 2008; the value of urban industry triggered by the ＂RMB4 trillion investment＂ is 14% of the total industry output in 2008; the value of household appliances and related industries triggered by the ＂household appliances to the countryside＂ policy is 41% of the total household appliances industry output in 2008. The whole social output triggered by the ＂RMB4 trillion of investment＂ and ＂household appliances to the countryside＂ policies in 2009 is RMBT.68 trillion larger than the social output loss caused by export reduction in the first half of 2009, and triggered urban and rural per capita incomes increase by RMB1879 and RMB786, which are equal to 11.8% ofurban per capita income and 16.8% of rural per capita income. However, the effect of triggered urban labor remuneration is larger than that of triggered rural labor remuneration, and the＂RMB4 trillion investment＂ and ＂household appliances to the countryside＂ policies have little effect on the balanced development of urban and rural household income.