摘要
运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,对水文不确定性影响下的水库防洪调度风险进行了定量分析,并将水库防洪调度目标值近似描述为有限区间内服从正态分布的随机变量,从而提出一种基于改进相对优势度的风险型多属性决策方法,以有效求解含有随机决策变量的风险型多属性决策问题。将该方法应用于三峡水库防洪调度风险分析以及调度方案的排序和优选,实例研究结果表明该方法是有效的,能够为三峡防洪调度方案的制定提供决策支撑。
A quantitative analysis on the risk of reservoir flood control operation under hydrological uncertainty was made using Monte-Carlo simulation method.Based on the analysis results,target values of flood control schemes were approximately described as random variables in a finite interval obeying normal distribution.To solve this multi-attribute decision-making problem with normal random variables,a multi-attribute risk decision-making method based on relative dominance was proposed in this paper.This method was applied to the risk analysis and scheme sorting and selection of Three Gorges Reservoir flood control operation.The results obtained demonstrated its effectiveness and indicated that it could provide decision support for the flood control scheme of Three Gorges Reservoir.
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第12期58-63,共6页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
水利部公益性科研专项(201101004
201001005)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)课题(2007CB714107)
关键词
水库防洪调度
蒙特卡罗模拟
防洪风险分析
多属性决策
三峡水库
reservoir flood control operation
Monte-Carlo simulation
risk analysis of flood control
multi-attribute decision-making
Three Gorges Reservoir
