上海地区夏季气温变化对用电负荷的影响

IMPACTS OF SUMMER TEMPERATURE VARIATION ON POWER LOAD IN SHANGHAI

利用上海地区2003～2007年6～9月日最高用电负荷和逐日气温资料,提取夏季日最高用电负荷气象变化量,分析了上海地区夏季气温变化对日最高用电负荷的影响。结果表明上海地区夏季日最高用电负荷气象变化量的变化趋势与日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温的变化趋势一致。日最高气温≥33℃为引起上海日最高用电负荷增加的初始气温敏感点,日最高气温≥35℃为强气温敏感点,日最高气温≥39℃则为极端气温敏感点。高温期间上海日最高用电负荷随气温增加的幅度较大,日最高用电负荷气象变化量的第95百分位数对应于38℃以上的高温日。上海日最高用电负荷气象变化量与月、日空调度日数成正比关系,当日空调度日数比常年偏多1倍以上时,上海处在强高温过程,日最高负荷随气象增幅较大,电力部门调电难度增加。

Based on the the daily peak load of power and air temperature data from June to September during 2003-2007,the impacts of summer temperature variation on power load were analyzed in Shanghai by using the meteorological variation of the daily peak load of power.Results indicate that the trend of meteorological variation of the daily peak load of power is consistent with that of daily mean temperature,daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature.When daily maximum temperature is more than or equal to 33 degrees centigrade,daily peak load of power increase rapidly,and the 33,35 and 39 degrees centigrade of daily maximum temperature are three sensitive points of daily peak load of power to air temperature variation in Shanghai.During the periods with daily maximum temperature more than or equal to 35 degrees centigrade,the daily peak load of power varies greatly according to the air temperature,and the 95 percent threshold of meteorological variation of the daily peak load of power corresponds to daily maximum temperature more than or equal to 38 degrees centigrade.The meteorological variation of the daily peak load of power is directly related with the monthly and daily cooling degree-days in Shanghai.When the cooling degree-days are one times more than the 1971-2000 average,Shanghai is strongly affected by high temperature and the daily peak load of power increases rapidly,which increases the difficulty of electric power enterprise for power adjustment with higher using ratio of air condition in day and night.