基于主成分分析的江苏省水资源承载力研究

STUDY ON THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF WATER RESOURCES IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON THE PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS

随着水资源短缺和水污染问题的加剧,水资源供需矛盾日益突出,水资源承载力已成为衡量区域可持续发展的一项重要指标。以江苏省水资源承载力为研究对象,运用主成分分析法对江苏省的水资源承载力从时间和空间两个角度进行综合评价。研究表明:影响水资源承载力的因子主要包括经济发展因子、人口因子和水资源自然状况因子;2000～2009年,江苏省的水资源承载力整体上呈现出稳步递增的趋势;从空间上来看,江苏省内的水资源承载力存在明显的地区差异,苏南的水资源承载力最大,苏中次之,苏北最小,这主要是受到地区经济发展不平衡和水资源条件的影响。为了保证社会经济的可持续发展,必须合理、高效地利用水资源,充分发挥水资源的承载潜力。

With the problem of water shortage and water pollution getting more serious,the conflict between supplying and demanding of water resources becoming much fierce day by day,carrying capacity of water resources has been regarded as a significant indicator in measuring regional sustainable development level.Taking the carrying capacity of water resources in Jiangsu Province as the research object,the principal component analysis has been used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources form temporal and spatial views.The results show that there are three main factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources,including economic development factor,population factor and water resources factor.The overall carrying capacity of water resources in Jiangsu Province has showed a trend of steadily increasing during 2000~2009.From the spatial point of view,there are obvious differences among 13 cities.The southern Jiangsu gets the maximum score in evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources,then the middle Jiangsu gets the lower level,and the northern Jiangsu gets the lowest level.This is mainly due to the imbalance of the economy development and the water resources condition.In order to ensure sustainable socio-economic development,some countermeasures must be done to utilize the water resources reasonably and efficiently,and exploit the water resources to its full potential.