FDI创新溢出与门槛效应——基于非线性面板平滑转换回归模型的分析

FDI Spillovers on China's Innovation Capacity and Threshold Effects: Empirical Analysis Based on Nonlinear Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

本文采用面板数据的变系数模型和非线性面板平滑转换回归模型对1998～2008年我国高技术产业13个细分行业中FDI的创新溢出和门槛效应进行检验和测算,结果显示:FDI创新溢出效应在我国高技术产业各细分行业中存在明显差异;行业技术水平、人力资本、市场竞争程度对高技术产业FDI创新溢出效应皆存在门槛效应,具体而言,当内资企业行业技术水平超过0.756的门槛值后,FDI创新溢出提升的速度明显加快;当内资企业的人力资本跨过的7.79门槛值后,FDI创新溢出效应出现显著的跃升;FDI创新溢出效应只有在市场竞争程度较激烈(赫芬达指数<638.0)的行业才更为明显;与人力资本、市场竞争程度相比,行业技术水平对FDI创新溢出的影响最为显著。

Using variable coefficient model of panel data and nonlinear panel smooth transition model,this paper estimates FDI innovation spillover effects in 13 sub-industries of Chinese High-tech Industries from 1998 to 2008 and also measures the threshold effects of FDI innovation spillovers.The result shows that FDI affects the local technology innovation differently in different sub-industries,and that there are obvious threshold effects of industry technical level,human capital and the extent of market competition on FDI innovation spillovers.When technology level of domestic enterprises becomes above 0.756,that is its threshold value,FDI innovation spillover effects will be promoted at a much higher rate.When human capital level of domestic enterprises exceeds its threshold value which is 7.79,there will be a significant increase for FDI innovation spillovers.FDI innovation spillovers are more obvious in those sub-industries with Herfindahl index more than 638.0.Finally,it is also shown that among these three factors,the impact of industry technical level on FDI innovation spillovers is the most pronounced.