北京产业结构演变与经济增长动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth of Beijing

本文利用协整检验、VAR模型和脉冲响应函数分析,从北京三次产业比值变动对GDP的动态冲击视角,分析北京产业结构演变对经济增长的影响,系统研究北京产业结构演变与经济增长的关系。结果表明,20多年来北京产业结构变动由"二三一"逐渐演变为"三二一"格局,第三产业比重的增加对经济增长的推动作用最大。

This paper employs Eviews software for a co-integration test,VAR model fitting and impulse responses function for time series analysis in turn.By analysing the effect on the Beijing＇s GDP by varying the ratio of the primary,secondary and the tertiary industries,the paper studies the relationship of adjustment of industrial structure and economic growth empirically.The result shows that in the past 20 years or so,Beijing＇s industry pattern changes from ＂II IIII＂ to ＂III II I ＂,and that the increase of the tertiary industry greatly promotes economic growth.