租佃制度是有效的吗?——对中国1978—2009年农业绩效的实证研究

Is Tenancy Effective? The Empirical Research on China's Agricultural Efficiency During The Period Form 1978 to 2009

本文对不完全信息下的土地租佃契约进行研究后发现,所有的租佃契约都是次优的,也就是说,租佃制度本身是效率损失的。对于中国的农业绩效,制度性的因素影响始终是很大的。因此,本文构建了一个基于时间序列的回归模型来说明家庭承包制下的中国农业绩效,应用岭回归估计方法在对1978—2009年中国农业绩效的实证研究后我们发现,现行的土地制度是导致1993年后我国农业经济增长缓慢的根本原因。既然在现行的农地制度下,中国的农业产出增长缓慢,那么就有必要对现行的农地制度改革。本文提出的政策建议是:允许农地所有权的转让和抵押,并通过其他的制度安排来完善农业机械化生产。

This paper studied tenancy contracts in an incomplete information economy and concluded that all tenancy contracts are second-best, in other words, all tenancy contracts lead to efficiency lost. We found that institutional factors have great impact on China＇ s agricultural efficiency all along. Therefore, by using the method of ridge regression, we constructed a regression models of time series to show China＇ s agricultural efficiency in the household responsibility system （HRS） and concluded that the current land tenure system leaded to slow growth of China＇s agricultural economy after 1993. Since China＇s agricultural output grows slowly in current land tenure system, it is necessary to reform the current land tenure system. This paper gave some policy suggestion： allowing ownership of agricultural land to transfer and mortgage and improving mechanization of agricultural production.