中国猪瘟发生风险定性评估

Qualitative Risk Assessment of Classical Swine Fever Qutbreak in China

为定性评估中国猪瘟发生风险,本研究通过收集整理国内外猪瘟研究资料,运用动物疫病风险分析方法对猪瘟病原特性、传染源、传播途径、易感动物和已采取防控措施效果5个主要风险因素进行定性分析。风险评估认为目前全国范围均存在猪瘟发生风险,由于实施了猪瘟强制免疫政策,猪群均存在一定的免疫抗体,因此猪瘟大规模流行几率很低,但点状散发流行几率较高。现阶段疫苗免疫仍是中国防控猪瘟的重要手段。

For qualitative risk assessment of classical swine fever（CSF） outbreak in China,this study used the risk analysis method of animal disease to qualitative analyze the pathogenic characteristics,infection sources,transmission patterns,susceptible animals,the effect of prevention and control measures of CSF in China,by analyzing domestic and foreign data of CSF.The results indicated that the outbreak risk of CSF was existing across the country.Due to the implementation of the compulsory vaccination policy,the probability of CSF pandemic is very low,but the local and spotting outbreak is high risk in China.Vaccination is still important to prevent and control CSF at this stage.