陇中黄土沟壑区粮食生产驱动影响因素及对策研究——以会宁县为例

Study on Driving Factors Affecting Grain Production and Development Strategies in Gansu Loess Plateau

应用灰色关联分析方法,分析了会宁县1996～2009年粮食产量与粮食单产、粮食作物播种面积、农村劳动力、农用化肥施用折纯量等要素之间的关联程度,揭示了影响粮食产量的驱动因素。结果表明1,996～2009年,会宁县粮食产量表现为阶段性波动增长的特征。从驱动力看,单产是影响粮食产量的首要因素,农用化肥施用折纯量是影响粮食产量的重要因素,农用地膜、节水灌溉等技术的投入是影响粮食产量的关键因素,且表现出很大的潜力,干旱黄土沟壑区特定的资源禀赋是影响粮食产量的基础性因素。

By using gray correlation analysis method,the correlation degree among grain yield and per unit area grain yield,grain sowing area,rural labor force and pure volume discount of chemical fertilizers during 1996-2009 in Huining County were analyzed and the driving factors which mainly affected the grain yield were put forward.The results showed that the grain yield had the characteriswtic of periodic fluctuation growth.Viewing from the driving force,per unit area grain yield is the primary factor that affects grain production;pure volume discount of chemical fertilizer is the most important factor that affects grain production;the use of technologies about agricultural land film and water-saving irrigation are the key factors that affect grain yield,which represents a great potential.In particular,the specific natural resource condition in the Arid Loess Plateau is the basic factor that affects grain production.