东亚货币合作可行性的经济数据检验——基于OCA理论的分析

Economic Data Test on the Feasibility of Monetary Cooperation in East Asia——An Analysis Based on the OCA Theory

在最优货币区理论构筑的分析框架下,东亚区域在经济开放度、出口产品结构相似性、经济冲击对称性方面达到了OCA理论的标准,而在生产要素的流动性、金融市场一体化等方面距离最优货币区的标准尚有差距,但是这种差距正在缩小。通货膨胀相似性方面东亚整体虽未满足OCA标准的要求,但是有次区域已经符合这一标准。考虑到最优货币区标准的内生性,而且大量文献通过对东亚地区进行分组并采用不同的研究方法,证明东亚地区存在形成最优货币区的潜力,因而对次区域的货币合作可行性分析依然乐观。

This paper evaluates monetary cooperation in East Asia by the model and method of Optimum Currency Area（OCA） theory framework which are： Whether it is appropriate to carry out OCA for East Asia.The economic openness,similarity of export product structure and symmetry of shocks has met with OCA criteria.However,it is still far away from OCA criteria in terms of factor mobility and financial market integration and the gap become narrow.East Asia isn＇t satisfied with the OCA criteria in similarity of inflation rate.However,some sub-regional has met with this criteria.Taking into account its endogenous feature and the fact that lots of literature review adopt different methods to conduct their studies to prove East Asia has the potential to become the optimum currency area,so the author is optimistic about the feasibility analysis of the regional monetary cooperation.