基于改进灰色模型的电力负荷中长期预测

Medium and Long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on the Improved Grey Model

基于电力系统中长期负荷预测的特点,针对常规灰色预测模型存在的不足,提出一种基于数据平滑处理,以及线性回归残差修正的改进灰色预测方法。对某地区算例比较和分析表明,本方法可明显提高中长期负荷预测精度。

Based on the analyses of the characteristics of medium and long term load forecasting in power system and the shortcomings of conventional grey prediction model,this essay proposes a method based on data smoothing and residual correction which is based on linear regression,to improve the accuracy of the load forecasting.Numerical examples and analyses in a region validate that the improved prediction model can obviously improve the prediction accuracy of medium and long term power load forecasting.