赣县近60a气温与降雨量变化趋势研究

Trends of Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in Ganxian in Recent 60 Years

利用江西省赣县气象站1951年-2008年的气温和降雨资料分析了该地区全年和各季气温与降雨量变化趋势情况,结果表明:赣县近60a来气温呈现上升趋势,年均气温的倾向率为0.108℃/10a,暖冬现象特别显著;赣县年降雨量以4.6mm/10a趋势下降,但冬季和夏季降雨量有增加趋势;年内降雨量分配不均,主要集中在春夏阶段;夏季气温与降雨量变化相关性较显著,其他时段均不显著;采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法对各时段的气温和降雨量的趋势变化进行了分析,进一步揭示了气温与降雨量多年来的变化趋势。

In this paper, the temperature and precipitation data from the meteorological stations trom 1951 to 2008 nave been an- alyzed in Ganxian, Jiangxi province. The results indicate that the temperature has increased in the past 60 years with an average rate of 0. 108℃/ 10a and the winter was apparently getting warmer. On the other hand, the annual precipitation has decreased in the past 60 years with an average rate of 4. 6 mm/10a; however, the precipitation showed an increasing tendency in the win- ter and summer. The monthly precipitation was distributed unevenly with the most precipitation occurring during the spring and summer time periods. The variations of temperature were significantly correlated with the variations of precipitation in the summer. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis was performed to evaluate the variations of temperature and precipitation for each time period, which can provide the trends of the variations of temperature and precipitation over years.