“超熵”评价泥石流沟发育现状及危险度——以大渡河某电站库区为例

Evaluation of the Debris Flow Gully Development Status and Risk by "Super Entropy"——Example of a Hydropower Station in Dadu River

泥石流沟谷是一个复杂的地貌系统,其发育可分2个时期、5个阶段,一旦形成泥石流,危害性较大。从系统科学和地貌学的角度出发,运用能综合表述地貌演化特征的因子——超熵,对大渡河瀑布沟电站库区泥石流沟谷进行沟谷纵剖面形态和超熵值计算,进而对发育现状指数及危险度进行评价。结果表明:在调查的21条泥石流沟中,有14条泥石流处在发展期,具有潜在发生泥石流的可能性;4条泥石流处在孕育期,危险度较低;有3条处在旺盛期,发生泥石流的可能性较高,一旦爆发,对沟口人员造成较大危害,危险性较高。

Debris flow gully is a complex landform system, and its development includes two periods and five stages. Once the debris flow forms, the harm is huge. This paper uses super entropy, an index reflecting the geomorphic evolution, to estimate the forming index of valley longitudinal of the debris flow gully near a hydropower station in Dadu river, and to further evaluate the development and risk of the debris flow gully. The results indicate that among the 21 debris flow gullies, 14 debris flows are in development with possibility of potential landslides,4 debris flows are in the incubation period with relatively smaller risk,and the other 3 debris flows are in the bloom phase with the highest likelihood of inducing landslides.