柴油机磨损趋势预测

The Forecast for the Wear Trend of the Diesel Engine

本文应用灰色系统理论的ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型，运用直读铁谱实验的数对柴油机磨损趋势进行了在线预测。重要的是，灰色系统理论──校正模型能够识别柴油机工况变化引起的直读铁数据的变化，正确判断其磨损趋势，实现对柴油机摩擦磨损趋势进行在线预测，其最大的特点是建模所需样本数据少，计算简单，预测准确。

This paper applies the GM (1, 1) Mode of Grey System theory and forecasts the wear trend of the diesel engine based on the date of direct reading ferrographic analysis. It is importand that the forecast of the Grey System, the Adjust Mode, is capable of distinguishing the varieties of the wear trend resulting from the varied working loads of the diesel engine. It provides a simple and reliable way of forecasting the wear trend of the diesel engine.