影响房价变动的计量经济学分析

Econometric Analysis of Housing Price Fluctuation

基于消费者需求理论对我国房地产市场的供给和需求两个方面分别建模,导出房地产市场的均衡价格模型,同时运用EVIEWS计量经济软件进行LS分析,在此基础上对模型进行修正,进行经济学和统计双重检验,最终得出对计量模型的参数估计.分析了当前影响我国房地产价格的主要因素,并对其有效性做了全面的检验,为政府及相关部门准确判断房地产发展形势、制定相关的宏观经济政策提供政策建议,为投资者的理性投资和决策指明了方向.

Based on the demand theory, we get the equilibrium price model of Chinese housing market through modeling both the supply and the demand of the market. The thesis does eeonometrical analysis and LS analysis by using software of EVIEWS, modifies the model, and does tests of both economics and statistics. Then we obtain the parameters estimations of the econometric models. The major factors which affect the housing price at present are analyzed. Its effectiveness is comprehensively tested. It provides administrative advices for the gov- ernment and relevant departments to correctly judge the current conditions in the real estate market, and make correlative mieroeconomic policies as well as directions for rational invests and decisions of investors.