FDI对我国国际收支中资本与金融项目影响的实证分析——基于VAR模型下的1982～2008年的时间序列数据

Empirical Analysis on the Effect of FDI on Capital and Financial Account of China's International Balance of Payments

本文应用1982年到2008年的时间序列数据,先利用ADF检验该数据的平稳性得到数据时一阶平稳的。在通过协整检验发现外商直接投资和国际收支中资本与金融项目存在长期稳定的协整关系,且长期内外商直接投资的流入对资本与金融项目产生正效应。最后建立误差修正模型,发现当资本与金融项目差额偏离长期均衡时,经过调整其趋向长期均衡的速度较快。FDI通过资本与金融项目影响了我国国际收支的总体平和内部结构,FDI已经成为影响我国国际收支平衡的重要因素。

In this article, firstly,we use the ADF test of stationarity of the time series data from 1982 to 2008 to get the data first-order smooth. According to Cointegration Test ,we find that foreign direct investment and international capital and financial account balance of payments exists the stable cointegration relationship in longterm and long term foreign direct investment inflows on the capital and financial account generates positive effect. Finally, by the establishment of error correction model, we find that when the difference between the capital and financial account balance deviates from the long-run equilibrium, after adjustment it would move towards its longrun equilibrium faster.Through the capital and financial account, FDI keeps China＇s inner structure of international balance of payments steady in general.The influence of FDI on China＇s international balance of payments has become more important.