大城市住房价格影响因素的动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of the Influence Factors on Housing Prices in Megacities:Variable parameters based on the state space model estimation in Nanjing(1998-2010)

本文以状态空间的可变参数模型为分析视角,对1998-2010年南京市住房价格变动的影响因素进行实证分析。在多变量分析框架下,根据Kalman滤波法,运用样本空间为13年的时间序列数据对参数进行连续地估计,并对其波动进行了阶段性动态分析。实证结果显示:从空间状态模型来看,市场环境的改变,如城市地区生产总值、城镇居民可支配收入、房地产开发投资额、金融机构存款余额、利率的变化、预期的转变等,住房销售价格都会通过供给与需求的后续调整来得到表现。最后,本文针对实证分析结果提出了若干建议。

Using variable parameters of the state space model for the analysis perspective, this paper analysed the factors of 1998 - 2010 Nanjing housing price changes. Empirical results show that： from the point of the State space model view, market environment changes, such as urban GDP, disposable income of urban residents, real estate development and investment, financial institutions deposits, interest rate changes, expected changes, etc, housing sales price will follow supply and demand through adjustments to get the performance. Finally, the author proposed empirical results for a number of recommendations.